Exit Poll 2023 MP: An exclusive exit poll conducted by CVoter for ABP News has shown that the Congress looks set to defeat the BJP in the Madhya Pradesh assembly elections.
The Congress had won by a slender margin in 2018 but lost power in 2020 when a group of rebel MLAs led by Jyotiraditya Sindhiya defected to the BJP.
In this round of elections the ABP-CVoter projections have made it clear that the Congress is expected to get a majority in the 230-seat House.
According to the ABP-CVoter exit poll conducted with a sample size of 45521 the Congress is winning between 113 and 137 seats while the majority mark in the state is 116 seats. In the 2018 assembly elections the Congress had won 114 seats.
The party’s vote share will increase from 40.9 per cent in 2018 to 44.1 per cent this time. In contrast the BJP’s vote share in Madhya Pradesh is set to come down marginally from the 41 per cent it got in 2018.
Exit polls have predicted 88 to 112 seats for the BJP. If the exit polls are correct Kamal Nath is likely to become the chief minister again. The survey also shows that the BSP is a depleted force in the state and is projected to get less than 3 per cent vote share.
A thorough analysis of the exit poll data also shows that the BJP is not making any significant gains in the Chambal region as was expected after the arrival of Jyotiraditya Scindia. The Scindia family has a strong hold in the Gwalior-Guna region.
Of the 34 seats in the region the BJP is projected to win 4 to 8 seats. In 2018 the party had won only 7 seats in the region while the Congress returned with 26 seats. Exit polls show a similar trend this time too.
Interestingly while the Congress had projected Kamal Nath as its chief ministerial candidate even before the election dates were announced the BJP had not projected Shivraj Singh Chouhan as its CM face.